The upcoming IPOs of SpaceX and OpenAI could redefine public market valuations for AI infrastructure. As both companies prepare for their public debuts, they are set to challenge traditional boundaries regarding investor appetite for tech firms aiming to raise capital in the trillion-dollar range.
On May 20, 2026, SpaceX submitted its S-1 to the SEC, revealing its financials for the first time. This prospectus indicated a consolidated revenue of $18.67 billion for 2025, following the acquisition of its xAI division. SpaceX is targeting a valuation between $1.75 trillion and over $2 trillion, with plans to raise up to $75 billion. OpenAI is also expected to file its draft prospectus soon, aiming for a valuation exceeding $1 trillion as early as September 2026.
The implications of these filings are substantial. If successful, the total capital raised by these two companies could reach or surpass $135 billion, a figure without modern precedent. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have been brought on to manage these complex public offerings, a move that could change perceptions of AI infrastructure’s value in the public market.
Market Context: A Historic Moment
Both companies are entering the market at a time when high inflation and interest rates have historically dampened enthusiasm for high-valuation tech IPOs. SpaceX's S-1 reveals a net loss of $4.94 billion for 2025, but an adjusted EBITDA of $6.58 billion shows a path to profitability through its Starlink satellite internet service. This segment is expected to generate $11.4 billion in revenue, making up a significant part of the overall business.
In contrast, OpenAI's financials tell a different story. The firm reported an annualized revenue run rate exceeding $20 billion at the end of 2025, following impressive growth. However, it faces challenges with a gross margin impacted by high compute costs, projected to reach $14.1 billion in 2026. Investors must evaluate whether OpenAI's rapid user growth can lead to sustainable profitability, especially considering its reliance on revenue-sharing agreements with Microsoft.
Comparative Financial Landscapes
A comparison of the financial health of SpaceX and OpenAI highlights stark differences in their revenue generation and strategies. SpaceX's S-1 details a solid business model, where launch services and Starlink significantly contribute to revenue. In contrast, xAI is still in its early stages and has yet to achieve operational profitability, with the AI division experiencing substantial losses that underscore the risks of emerging technologies.
OpenAI is counting on its rapid adoption rates, claiming about 900 million weekly active users and a large base of paying subscribers. While its revenue growth is notable, the high cash burn rate raises concerns about long-term sustainability and profitability. Analysts suggest that OpenAI may not reach cash-flow breakeven until 2029.
Capital Market Dynamics
The scale of these IPOs raises important questions about the current state of capital markets. If both SpaceX and OpenAI meet their ambitious fundraising targets, it would signify a major shift in how public investors perceive high-growth companies in the AI sector. Historically, the largest IPO was Saudi Aramco's, which raised $26 billion; a successful SpaceX offering could surpass that by three times.
The roadshow for SpaceX is expected to begin soon, with a potential trading date set for June 12. Investors will closely monitor insights into the profitability and growth trajectories of both firms. OpenAI's timeline remains uncertain, as its S-1 will not be public until later this summer, creating a significant information gap for investors.
As both companies prepare to enter public markets, the investor community must assess whether their compelling growth narratives withstand scrutiny amid significant financial risks and market conditions. A successful launch for either could pave the way for other AI-focused firms, like Anthropic, to seek public capital in a market still grappling with the valuation of AI infrastructure at this scale.
