KeyBanc Elevates NVIDIA Price Target to $300 Ahead of Earnings

NVIDIA's stock price is climbing as KeyBanc has raised its price target from $275 to $300, signaling a positive outlook ahead of the company's upcoming earnings report. The firm has retained an Overweight rating on NVIDIA shares, pointing to several catalysts that could boost performance in the near term.

This upgrade comes at a crucial moment, as NVIDIA is set to release its fiscal Q1 2027 results, which are expected to show revenues of around $78 billion and earnings per share of $1.77. Analysts believe these earnings will support ongoing growth rather than just a temporary spike. KeyBanc's analysis anticipates a rise in Blackwell GPU shipments by as many as 200,000 units, potentially adding $5 billion to $7 billion in revenue.

The new Rubin GPU line is projected to generate between $3 billion and $4 billion in initial revenue, with a shipment forecast of about 1.8 million units this year. The geopolitical climate, especially regarding China’s H200 approvals, could also significantly impact revenue, estimated to be between $13 billion and $14 billion. However, KeyBanc expects NVIDIA management to exclude this from their guidance, viewing it instead as a possible upside.

Strong Fiscal Performance

NVIDIA recently reported strong financial results, with FY2026 revenue soaring to $215.94 billion, marking a remarkable 65% increase year-over-year. This growth has driven the company's market capitalization to an impressive $5.46 trillion, aided by a year-to-date gain of 19%. The fourth-quarter performance was equally robust, with revenues reaching $68.13 billion, fueled by a 73% year-on-year increase in Data Center revenue, which totaled $62.31 billion.

Management’s guidance for the upcoming quarter, excluding revenue from Data Center compute in China, indicates ongoing momentum. Analysts have observed that the current trailing P/E ratio of 46x and a forward P/E of 27x may seem high, but these figures reflect NVIDIA's solid growth outlook.

Analysts' Confidence

The Street's consensus price target for NVIDIA stands at $272.94, with 48 Buy and 10 Strong Buy ratings. KeyBanc's new target of $300 aligns with the expectation that the Rubin GPU line will be a crucial driver of growth rather than a distant possibility. CEO Jensen Huang recently noted, "we shipped our first Vera Rubin samples to customers earlier this week, and we remain on track to commence production shipments in the second half of the year."

As NVIDIA approaches its earnings announcement, investors will be closely monitoring updates on these critical product lines and overall market conditions. The interplay of these factors could shape NVIDIA's performance in the coming months, especially amid the ongoing challenges and opportunities within the AI infrastructure sector.